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Show HN: I built a 2-min quiz that shows you how bad you are at estimating
How-ToCareer

Show HN: I built a 2-min quiz that shows you how bad you are at estimating

via Hacker Newsconvexly10h ago

I've gotten to the point in my career where I now make strategic decisions often (hiring, firing, choosing what equipment to go with, etc.), as well as in my personal life where I need to strongly weigh my options for a big purchase or investment. I found a not-so-surprising parallel between the two as these decisions "resolved." Am I making good decisions or am I getting lucky? Did some research, read some books, and realized I should get in the habit of tracking my decision process. That quickly turned into the idea that formed Convexly. The landing page is a 10-question calibration quiz where you assign a confidence level to statements drawn from a rotating pool of 100 (working on making the pool larger) and you get a Brier score back instantly. No signup required, and you can share your scores right away. If you find it interesting, you can create a free account where you can track your decisions with probability estimates, resolve them over time, and get calibration curves that sh

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