Day 2: Why Working Harder Isn't Enough

Series: Return of the Coder — In 80 Days Tags: #buildinpublic #devjournal #programming #startup When I was a boy, I sold Scout-O-Rama tickets. The math was simple: knock on more doors, get more sales, win a bigger prize. Selling software isn't that different — make more quality products, have a better chance of selling one. The Math That Changed Everything I did some math today that I can't stop thinking about. Over 90% of indie products fail commercially. Most of their creators never ship another one. So here's the question: if each product has a 99% chance of failure, how many products do you need for a 99% chance that at least one succeeds? P(at least one success) = 1 - (0.99)^n >= 0.99 n >= ln(0.01) / ln(0.99) n >= 458.2 459 products. Four hundred and fifty-nine. I have 3 paid products. That's 456 to go. I have 67 working days left (no Sundays). That's 6.8 products per working day . Nearly seven. Every single day. For the rest of the challenge. Just knock on more doors, right? The