Building fair real-time odds for CS2 stream predictions

In my last post , I wrote about stream delay and why realtime on Twitch is secretly a timeline problem. This time: odds. I am building elo.market , a live prediction system for CS2 streams. Viewers bet virtual elo on things like round winners, bomb plants, and clutches. At first, dynamic odds sounded easy. Votes come in -> odds move. Done, right? Not really. Because if odds move too slowly, the market feels fake. And if they move too fast, one smart whale can make the whole thing feel rigged. The Problem In One Line This was the failure mode I kept running into: small early vote -> juicy odd appears -> whale grabs it -> market feels broken Or visually: +------------------+ +--------------------+ +------------------+ +------------------+ | Small early vote | --> | Big price appears | --> | Whale takes it | --> | Everyone else | | from normal user | | on the other side | | before it settles| | thinks: "lol ok" | +------------------+ +--------------------+ +------------------+ +----------