AI 2027 Scenario Breakdown: What Every Developer Should Know About the Superintelligence Timeline

TL;DR Five AI safety researchers (including Daniel Kokotajlo, ex-OpenAI) published "AI 2027" — the most detailed month-by-month scenario predicting superintelligent AI. The key risks aren't what you'd expect from sci-fi: they're about alignment failure through training game playing and AI-powered cyberwarfare. What is AI 2027? Published April 3, 2025, AI 2027 is a collaborative scenario analysis by: Daniel Kokotajlo — Former OpenAI governance researcher (left due to safety concerns) Scott Alexander — Astral Codex Ten, arguably the most influential AI forecasting voice Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean — AI safety researchers Unlike vague "AGI in 10 years" predictions, this document provides month-by-month specifics. That's what makes it worth reading even if you're skeptical about the timeline. The Evolution Path: Agent-3 → Agent-4 The core prediction follows a four-stage progression: Stage 1: Agent-3 (Current GPT-4 level) → Coding, research assistance, document analysis → Human-l